CREA Slashes Housing Forecast as Tariffs and Economic Uncertainty Stall Market Recovery

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In early 2025, the Canadian Real Estate Association (CREA) significantly downgraded its housing market forecast due to escalating economic uncertainty stemming from U.S.-imposed tariffs. Initially anticipating an 8.6% increase in home sales for the year, CREA revised its projection to a mere 0.3% growth, expecting approximately 482,673 residential properties to change hands. This adjustment reflects a shift from earlier optimism to a more cautious outlook, as the housing market contends with the broader economic implications of the trade tensions.

​ March 2025 marked the weakest performance for Canadian home sales since 2009, with a 4.8% decline from February and a 9.3% drop compared to March 2024. The national average selling price decreased by 3.7% year-over-year, and CREA's Home Price Index fell by 1% month-over-month and 2.1% annually. These declines are attributed to the uncertainty surrounding U.S. tariffs on Canadian goods, including autos, and Canada's retaliatory measures, which have dampened economic growth despite several interest rate cuts by the Bank of Canada since June.

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